A research desk for market cycles.

Source: Coinbase Exchange BTC-USD (spot ticker and daily candles), with Yahoo Finance chart as a fallback when Coinbase is rate-limited. Drawdown uses recent daily closes from that feed, not an all-time exchange ATH. Halving date is fixed (19 Apr 2024). Next halving estimate uses 210,000 blocks at Bitcoin's 10-minute target block time. Educational only — NFA.

Educational compare of percentage returns over the same 4-year window (all lines start at 0% on the left). Not absolute price levels. Shared % scale: selected series share one Y-axis so relative paths are comparable (equities and housing may look flatter on long windows — that is the compare). Each line is close_t / close_at_window_start − 1 (starts at ~0% on the left; the right edge matches the bar). Series toggles: click chips to show or hide lines and bars (defaults: S&P 500, BTC, US real estate). US M2 is relative % change from the window start, not the raw money-stock level. Bar mode: latest % for the selected window as grouped bars (same end value as the line). Data via Yahoo Finance delayed third-party chart feeds (BTC-USD, ^NDX, ^GSPC, ^AORD, ^990100-USD-STRD) and FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (CSUSHPISA S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National HPI; QAUN628BIS BIS AU residential property prices; M2SL US M2). The MSCI World chip is the developed-world MSCI World Standard (price) index via Yahoo's delayed chart feed (^990100-USD-STRD) — not an ETF, not ACWI, and not a net total-return series. MSCI® is a trademark of MSCI Inc.; Case-Shiller® and other index names are trademarks of their owners; no endorsement implied. Monthly/quarterly series are step-forward-filled to the shared axis. Partial series may appear if history is short or a feed fails. Bonds not included yet. For the full BTC+MSTR cycle desk, open Cycle desk. Educational only — not investment advice (NFA).